Propane vs Oil Heat Cost: Which Is Cheaper This Winter?
Propane wins: $29.00 vs $45.02 per MMBtu at EIA’s winter outlook; propane was cheaper in 12 of 28 states last winter — your own two prices decide it below.
· Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
Jump to calculator ↓Prefilled with EIA's national last-winter averages for propane, heating oil; the second preset switches to the forecast. Per-unit rates only; leave out the fixed monthly charge.
Advanced — efficiencies, gas unit, COP, seasonal load
Sliders scale the prefilled prices to test sensitivity; the numeric fields stay the precise inputs. Presets:
- Propane (EIA outlook)
- $29.00/MMBtu
- Oil (EIA outlook)
- $45.02/MMBtu
- States compared
- 28 with both prices
- Propane cheaper in
- 12 states
- Oil cheaper in
- 16 states
- Widest propane win
- North Dakota
- Widest oil win
- Florida
- Federal credit
- §25C ended 31 Dec 2025
Why this number
Propane and oil are priced in different units, so the only comparison that means anything for this pair is dollars per million Btu delivered — price per unit, converted to heat content, divided by appliance efficiency. For propane against heating oil that is $29.00 against $45.02 at EIA’s national outlook, then every state’s own published prices below, then yours in the calculator.
The break-even rule
Propane is cheaper than oil whenever propane $/gal < oil $/gal × 0.660 × (propane AFUE ÷ oil AFUE). The 0.660 is 91,452 ÷ 138,500 Btu — a gallon of propane carries two-thirds the heat of a gallon of oil. At the default efficiencies (92% vs 85%) that is propane below 0.715 × the oil price: with oil at $5.30, propane must be under $3.79/gal to win.
National picture: last winter measured, this winter forecast
| Option | Last winter (EIA national average, Oct 2025–Mar 2026) | This winter (EIA STEO September 2026 forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Propane furnace (92% AFUE) | $30.43/MMBtu | $29.00/MMBtu ($2.44/gal) |
| Heating oil boiler (85% AFUE) | $33.47/MMBtu | $45.02/MMBtu ($5.30/gal) |
Heating oil is the fuel EIA moves most this winter: +35% nationally on a Brent path near $90.9 for 2026 against $69.1 in 2025. Propane is forecast -5%. Electricity is forecast +3%.
Propane vs oil by state, last winter
Propane at the state’s SHOPP season average through a 92% AFUE furnace (regional PADD average where SHOPP has no state series, marked ‘regional’); heating oil at the state’s SHOPP season average through an 85% AFUE boiler (regional where marked). States with no published EIA price for one of the two are left out rather than filled from a national number. Sorted from the widest propane advantage to the widest heating oil advantage.
| State | Propane $/MMBtu | Oil $/MMBtu | Cheaper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | $19.37 | $30.00 (regional) | Propane | $10.63 (35%) |
| South Dakota | $21.28 | $30.00 (regional) | Propane | $8.73 (29%) |
| Iowa | $18.91 | $27.25 | Propane | $8.34 (31%) |
| Minnesota | $23.19 | $30.82 | Propane | $7.63 (25%) |
| Kansas | $22.57 | $30.00 (regional) | Propane | $7.43 (25%) |
| Illinois | $22.64 | $30.00 (regional) | Propane | $7.36 (25%) |
| Nebraska | $19.09 | $24.84 | Propane | $5.75 (23%) |
| Wisconsin | $22.69 | $28.12 | Propane | $5.44 (19%) |
| Missouri | $24.92 | $30.00 (regional) | Propane | $5.08 (17%) |
| Michigan | $26.89 | $28.69 | Propane | $1.81 (6%) |
| Ohio | $30.65 | $31.73 | Propane | $1.08 (3%) |
| Indiana | $29.39 | $30.00 | Propane | $0.61 (2%) |
| Pennsylvania | $34.85 | $31.68 | Oil | $3.16 (9%) |
| Kentucky | $31.76 | $27.88 | Oil | $3.88 (12%) |
| Delaware | $42.46 | $37.65 | Oil | $4.81 (11%) |
| Georgia | $36.58 | $31.75 (regional) | Oil | $4.83 (13%) |
| New York | $41.93 | $36.47 | Oil | $5.47 (13%) |
| Massachusetts | $40.57 | $35.01 | Oil | $5.56 (14%) |
| New Jersey | $43.12 | $36.52 | Oil | $6.60 (15%) |
| Maine | $39.15 | $31.65 | Oil | $7.50 (19%) |
| Virginia | $41.14 | $32.97 | Oil | $8.17 (20%) |
| Rhode Island | $43.13 | $34.95 | Oil | $8.19 (19%) |
| Maryland | $42.61 | $34.36 | Oil | $8.25 (19%) |
| New Hampshire | $42.55 | $33.11 | Oil | $9.44 (22%) |
| North Carolina | $39.91 | $30.16 | Oil | $9.76 (24%) |
| Vermont | $43.83 | $33.21 | Oil | $10.62 (24%) |
| Connecticut | $45.50 | $33.54 | Oil | $11.96 (26%) |
| Florida | $55.47 | $31.75 (regional) | Oil | $23.72 (43%) |
Reading the propane-vs-heating oil table honestly
Three things this column cannot see for propane against heating oil. The fixed monthly customer charge does not change the $29.00-vs-$45.02 per-unit answer, but it disappears entirely if you drop one of these fuels. Equipment is outside it: nothing here prices a new propane furnace or heating oil boiler, and there is no federal credit for either in 2026. And volatility: propane is priced by a dealer rather than a tariff and moved +35% in EIA’s outlook, so the state pages carry each season’s low and high.
Weighing the whole season rather than the unit price? The heat pump vs furnace calculator starts from your annual heating spend, and the winter heating hub puts all five options on one national table.
Frequently asked questions
Is oil cheaper than propane this winter?
No — at EIA’s national outlook propane costs $29.00 per MMBtu delivered against $45.02 for oil; last winter propane was cheaper in 12 of the 28 states with published prices, so your own two prices decide it.
Is propane cheaper than heating oil for heating?
At EIA’s national outlook prices for this winter, propane is cheaper: $29.00 against $45.02 per million Btu delivered. Last winter’s state averages split 12 states for propane and 16 for heating oil, so the honest answer depends on the two prices on your own bills, which the calculator takes directly. The comparison is per unit of delivered heat and ignores the fixed monthly customer charge and equipment cost.
What efficiencies does this comparison assume?
Propane at the state’s SHOPP season average through a 92% AFUE furnace (regional PADD average where SHOPP has no state series, marked ‘regional’); heating oil at the state’s SHOPP season average through an 85% AFUE boiler (regional where marked). For propane against heating oil every efficiency is editable, and an 80% atmospheric furnace against a 97% condensing one moves this pair’s answer more than a year’s price change.
Why do the state figures use last winter rather than a forecast?
Because propane and heating oil state prices are published by EIA only after the fact (SHOPP runs October to March; the Natural Gas Monthly lags two months) and no agency forecasts them by state. The September 2026 STEO moves the national propane price by -5% and heating oil by +35%; the calculator’s ’this winter’ preset applies those two changes.
Does a tax credit change the propane vs heating oil answer?
Not in 2026. The §25C credit for heat pumps, furnaces and boilers ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, so nothing installed for this winter qualifies federally. State and utility rebates continue and are listed on DSIRE. This page is a running-cost comparison, not tax advice.
How we calculated this
Worked for propane vs heating oil at EIA’s outlook: propane 10 × ($2.44/gal ÷ 0.91452) ÷ 0.92 = $29.00/MMBtu; oil 10 × ($5.30/gal ÷ 1.385) ÷ 0.85 = $45.02/MMBtu. State rows use each state’s October–March EIA average through the same conversions.Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.
Where to go next
- Winter heating cost hub — Where propane ($29.00) and heating oil ($45.02) sit among all five options on the national table.
- Cost to heat a home in North Dakota — The widest gap in this table: propane $19.37 vs oil $30.00 per MMBtu.
- Propane vs Electric Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Oil vs Heat Pump Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Gas vs Heat Pump Heating Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — The weekly EIA survey readings behind every delivered-fuel figure in this table.
- Heat pump vs furnace cost calculator — Whole-season dollars from your own annual heating spend rather than per-MMBtu.
- Heat pump crossover temperature — Named NEEP units: the exact outdoor temperature where the furnace takes over.
- Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Set the changeover point if you keep the old furnace as backup.