Cost to Heat a Home in North Dakota: Gas vs Propane vs Heat Pump

In North Dakota the cheapest heat last winter was natural gas at $10.11 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $34.32 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.

Updated September 2026 · Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources

North Dakota heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel

The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in North Dakota that puts natural gas at $606 and electric resistance at $2,059 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to North Dakota’s own price (oil +35% is the large one) — direction, not a state forecast.

The prices behind the table

North Dakota’s June gas figure ($18.21/Mcf) runs 1.8× its winter average ($9.98) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.

What North Dakota’s utilities charge

The statewide 11.71¢ hides a 0.7¢ spread between North Dakota’s largest utilities. The ZIP lookup finds yours.

How North Dakota homes are heated

Natural gas heats 41.5% of North Dakota’s 325,079 occupied homes against 46.8% nationally, with electricity at 39.9%, propane at 13.7% and heating oil at 1.8%. That lines up with the table above: natural gas was also North Dakota’s cheapest heat last winter at $10.11 per MMBtu.

What the numbers say about North Dakota

At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in North Dakota was natural gas at about $10 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $34 — a 3.4× spread between the two columns. Gas beat a cold-climate heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17) by $5.71/MMBtu, and at 47°F (COP 3.2, $10.72) the heat pump still trails. At North Dakota’s winter rates the economic balance point lands above 47°F (COP 3.40 needed against 3.20 available), so the furnace is cheaper at every rated temperature. SHOPP does not survey North Dakota for heating oil, so the table uses the PADD 2 regional average of $3.53/gal, and EIA’s national +35% oil outlook would lift that to about $40/MMBtu. Propane averaged $1.63/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.

Heating degree-days: North Dakota’s own figure and the EIA division forecast

North Dakota itself logged 6,960 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO West North Central census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups North Dakota with its neighbours and is not a North Dakota figure:

January in the EIA West North Central census division (the coarse series that groups North Dakota with its neighbours) averaged about 21°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 24°F for January 2027, a season move of +373 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat North Dakota needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.

Where the heat pump crosses over in North Dakota

At last winter’s averages of 11.71¢/kWh and $0.96/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 3.40. North Dakota’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is above 47°F (COP 3.40 needed against 3.20 available), so the furnace is cheaper at every rated temperature; the crossover tool runs seven named units at North Dakota’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.

From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving North Dakota fresh state propane and heating-oil readings on the weekly tracker .

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
• Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $0.96/therm.
• Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $1.63/gal against a heat pump at 11.71¢/kWh.
• Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
• Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $1.63/gal against resistance strips at 11.71¢/kWh.
• Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind North Dakota’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
• Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 11.71¢ and $0.96/therm — North Dakota needs COP 3.40 to beat gas.
• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns North Dakota’s balance point (above 47°F (COP 3.40 needed against 3.20 available)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
• Heat pump sizing estimator — North Dakota sits in IECC zone 6A; a January mean near 21°F is the design context for capacity.
• Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a North Dakota bill jump into weather (5,051 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
• Solar panel cost in North Dakota — The same 13.41¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for North Dakota.
• Cost to run a space heater in North Dakota — 1,500 W at North Dakota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to run a heat pump in North Dakota — 3,500 W at North Dakota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to run a ductless mini-split in North Dakota — 2,000 W at North Dakota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to heat a home in Minnesota — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $10.84/MMBtu.
• Cost to heat a home in Alaska — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $13.37/MMBtu.