Cost to Heat a Home in Missouri: Gas vs Propane vs Heat Pump
In Missouri the cheapest heat last winter was a cold-climate heat pump at $16.96 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $36.81 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.
· Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
Jump to calculator ↓Prefilled with Missouri's last-winter EIA averages; the second preset applies EIA's national outlook. Per-unit rates only; leave out the fixed monthly charge.
Advanced — efficiencies, gas unit, COP, seasonal load
Sliders scale the prefilled prices to test sensitivity; the numeric fields stay the precise inputs. Presets:
- Cheapest last winter
- Heat pump · $16.96/MMBtu
- Most expensive
- Electric resistance · $36.81/MMBtu
- Natural gas
- $1.67/therm, winter avg
- Propane
- $2.10/gal (state)
- Heating oil
- $3.53/gal (regional)
- Electricity
- 12.56¢/kWh, winter avg
- Heat pump COP basis
- NEEP median, 3.20/2.17/1.90
- Heating degree-days, NOAA state
- 3,941 (Oct 2025–Mar 2026)
- EIA STEO West North Central division HDD
- 5,051 last · 5,424 forecast
- Federal credit
- §25C ended 31 Dec 2025
Why this number
Missouri paid 12.56¢/kWh for electricity last winter — 4 of 35 on this list of 35 cold-weather states — and $1.67 per therm for gas (25 of 35); propane ran $2.10/gal (10 of 35) and heating oil $3.53/gal (6 of 35). Put on one basis, dollars per million Btu delivered, a cold-climate heat pump was the cheapest heat at $16.96 and electric resistance the dearest at $36.81 — a 20-dollar gap per MMBtu, or about $1,191 over a 60-MMBtu season.
Price basis: Missouri’s fuel prices are last winter’s measured EIA and SHOPP averages; the this-winter column scales each by EIA’s national STEO change for that fuel — a labelled estimate, not a state forecast.
Missouri heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel
| Heating option | $/MMBtu delivered, last winter | Season cost at 60 MMBtu | This winter, EIA outlook applied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace (95% AFUE) | $17.58 | $1,055 | $15.87 (-10%) |
| Propane furnace (92% AFUE) | $24.92 | $1,495 | $23.76 (-5%) |
| Heating oil boiler (85% AFUE) | $30.00 | $1,800 | $40.36 (+35%) |
| Heat pump at 47°F (COP 3.20) | $11.50 | $690 | $11.80 (+3%) |
| Heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17, NEEP median 3-ton ducted) | $16.96 | $1,018 | $17.40 (+3%) |
| Heat pump at 5°F (COP 1.90) | $19.37 | $1,162 | $19.87 (+3%) |
| Electric resistance (COP 1.00) | $36.81 | $2,209 | $37.76 (+3%) |
The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in Missouri that puts a cold-climate heat pump at $1,018 and electric resistance at $2,209 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to Missouri’s own price (oil +35% is the large one) — direction, not a state forecast.
The prices behind the table
| Price | Last winter average (Oct 2025–Mar 2026) | Latest published reading | Source and basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | 12.56¢/kWh | 16.09¢/kWh (July 2026) | EIA Electric Power Monthly 5.6.A; winter average from the monthly editions |
| Natural gas | $1.67/therm ($17.29/Mcf, 6 of 6 months reported) | $28.78/Mcf (June 2026, shoulder-season price) | EIA Natural Gas Monthly, residential price by state; 1 Mcf = 10.38 therms |
| Heating oil | $3.53/gal | $4.49/gal (week of 2026-03-30) | EIA SHOPP regional average (PADD 2) — SHOPP does not survey this state for heating oil |
| Propane | $2.10/gal | $2.21/gal (week of 2026-03-30) | EIA SHOPP weekly survey, Missouri, Oct 2025–Mar 2026 average |
Missouri’s June gas figure ($28.78/Mcf) runs 1.7× its winter average ($17.29) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.
What Missouri’s utilities charge
| Utility (largest by customers) | Residential customers | ¢/kWh (EIA-861 2024) | Resistance $/MMBtu | Heat pump at 17°F $/MMBtu |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Electric Co - (MO) | 1,095,619 | 12.6¢ | $36.93 | $17.02 |
| Evergy Missouri West | 305,583 | 12.6¢ | $36.93 | $17.02 |
| Evergy Metro | 273,860 | 13.7¢ | $40.15 | $18.50 |
The statewide 12.56¢ hides a 1.1¢ spread between Missouri’s largest utilities, worth $3.22 per MMBtu on resistance heat and $1.49 on a heat pump. The ZIP lookup finds yours.
How Missouri homes are heated
| Main heating fuel | Missouri homes | US homes |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas (utility) | 49.6% | 46.8% |
| Electricity | 38.2% | 40.8% |
| Propane (bottled, tank or LP gas) | 8.5% | 4.9% |
| Heating oil or kerosene | 0.2% | 4.1% |
| Wood | 2.6% | 1.4% |
Natural gas heats 49.6% of Missouri’s 2,484,834 occupied homes against 46.8% nationally, with electricity at 38.2%, propane at 8.5% and heating oil at 0.2%. The table above says otherwise for last winter: the households on natural gas paid about $17.58 per MMBtu while a cold-climate heat pump delivered the same heat for $16.96, a $0.62 gap on every million Btu.
What the numbers say about Missouri
At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in Missouri was a cold-climate heat pump at about $17 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $37 — a 2.2× spread between the two columns. A cold-climate heat pump at its 17°F rating (COP 2.17) undercut a 95% gas furnace by $0.62/MMBtu; at 5°F (COP 1.9) the gap reversed, with gas ahead by $1.79. At Missouri’s winter rates the economic balance point lands about 14°F (COP 2.09 needed). SHOPP does not survey Missouri for heating oil, so the table uses the PADD 2 regional average of $3.53/gal, and EIA’s national +35% oil outlook would lift that to about $40/MMBtu. Propane averaged $2.10/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.
Heating degree-days: Missouri’s own figure and the EIA division forecast
Missouri itself logged 3,941 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO West North Central census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups Missouri with its neighbours and is not a Missouri figure:
| Last winter (actual) | HDD | This winter (STEO forecast) | HDD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 271 | Oct 2026 | 404 |
| Nov 2025 | 704 | Nov 2026 | 772 |
| Dec 2025 | 1,179 | Dec 2026 | 1,135 |
| Jan 2026 | 1,355 | Jan 2027 | 1,273 |
| Feb 2026 | 877 | Feb 2027 | 1,030 |
| Mar 2026 | 664 | Mar 2027 | 809 |
| Oct–Mar total | 5,051 | Oct–Mar total | 5,424 |
January in the EIA West North Central census division (the coarse series that groups Missouri with its neighbours) averaged about 21°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 24°F for January 2027, a season move of +373 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat Missouri needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.
Where the heat pump crosses over in Missouri
At last winter’s averages of 12.56¢/kWh and $1.67/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 2.09. Missouri’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is about 14°F (COP 2.09 needed); the crossover tool runs seven named units at Missouri’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.
From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving Missouri fresh state propane and heating-oil readings on the weekly tracker .
Frequently asked questions
What is the cheapest way to heat a home in Missouri?
On last winter’s EIA average prices, a cold-climate heat pump at about $16.96 per million Btu delivered, against natural gas at $17.58 and propane at $24.92. Missouri’s ranking uses a 95% gas furnace, 92% propane furnace, 85% oil boiler and a heat pump at COP 2.17; it is per unit of heat, so Missouri’s fixed monthly charges and equipment prices sit outside it.
Is a heat pump cheaper than gas in Missouri?
At Missouri’s last-winter averages of 12.56¢/kWh and $1.67/therm, a heat pump needs a COP above 2.09 to beat a 95% furnace. Against Missouri’s required COP 2.09, the NEEP medians (3.20/2.17/1.90 at 47/17/5°F) mean the heat pump wins on mild days and loses in a cold snap in Missouri; the balance point is about 14°F (COP 2.09 needed).
How much will heating oil and propane cost in Missouri this winter?
Nobody publishes a Missouri forecast; applying EIA’s September STEO national changes (+35% oil, -5% propane) to Missouri’s last-winter $3.53 and $2.10 per gallon gives roughly $4.75 and $2.00 — the ’this winter’ column. Missouri’s weekly SHOPP readings resume in October; the Winter Fuels Outlook (October 6) adds household expenditure on top.
Where do the Missouri prices on this page come from?
12.56¢/kWh is the EIA Electric Power Monthly average for Missouri over the October 2025–March 2026 editions (16.09¢ in July 2026); the share of homes on each heating fuel is Census ACS 2019–2023 5-year table B25040; $17.29/Mcf is the Natural Gas Monthly winter average (6 months), converted at 10.38 therms per Mcf; oil $3.53 and propane $2.10 per gallon are SHOPP season averages, regional or national where marked; degree-days are the STEO West North Central series. Only the ’this winter’ column is an estimate.
How we calculated this
Worked for Missouri at last winter’s averages: gas 10 × $1.67 ÷ 0.95 = $17.58/MMBtu; propane 10 × ($2.10 ÷ 0.91452) ÷ 0.92 = $24.92; oil 10 × ($3.53 ÷ 1.385) ÷ 0.85 = $30.00; resistance 293.07 × 0.1256 = $36.81; heat pump $36.81 ÷ 2.17 = $16.96. The this-winter column multiplies each by EIA’s national STEO change for that fuel (electricity ×1.026, gas ×0.903, propane ×0.953, oil ×1.345).Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.
Where to go next
- Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
- Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $1.67/therm.
- Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $2.10/gal against a heat pump at 12.56¢/kWh.
- Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
- Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $2.10/gal against resistance strips at 12.56¢/kWh.
- Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind Missouri’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
- Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 12.56¢ and $1.67/therm — Missouri needs COP 2.09 to beat gas.
- Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns Missouri’s balance point (about 14°F (COP 2.09 needed)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
- Heat pump sizing estimator — Missouri sits in IECC zone 4A; a January mean near 21°F is the design context for capacity.
- Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a Missouri bill jump into weather (5,051 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
- Solar panel cost in Missouri — The same 16.09¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for Missouri.
- Cost to heat a home in Virginia — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $17.68/MMBtu.
- Cost to heat a home in Washington — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $17.37/MMBtu.