Cost to Heat a Home in Kentucky: Gas vs Propane vs Heat Pump

In Kentucky the cheapest heat last winter was natural gas at $15.68 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $40.59 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.

Updated September 2026 · Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources

Kentucky heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel

The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in Kentucky that puts natural gas at $941 and electric resistance at $2,435 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to Kentucky’s own price (oil +35% is the large one) — direction, not a state forecast.

The prices behind the table

Kentucky’s June gas figure ($33.20/Mcf) runs 2.2× its winter average ($15.43) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.

What Kentucky’s utilities charge

The statewide 13.85¢ hides a 1.6¢ spread between Kentucky’s largest utilities, worth $4.69 per MMBtu on resistance heat and $2.16 on a heat pump. The ZIP lookup finds yours.

How Kentucky homes are heated

Electricity heats 54.3% of Kentucky’s 1,791,991 occupied homes against 40.8% nationally, with electricity at 54.3%, propane at 6.3% and heating oil at 0.7%. The table above says otherwise for last winter: the households on electricity paid about $40.59 per MMBtu while natural gas delivered the same heat for $15.68, a $24.91 gap on every million Btu.

What the numbers say about Kentucky

At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in Kentucky was natural gas at about $16 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $41 — a 2.6× spread between the two columns. Gas beat a cold-climate heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17) by $3.02/MMBtu, and at 47°F (COP 3.2, $12.68) the heat pump pulls ahead. At Kentucky’s winter rates the economic balance point lands about 29°F (COP 2.59 needed). Heating oil averaged $3.28/gal across 26 SHOPP survey weeks and finished the season at $4.87 on March 30, 2026; EIA’s September outlook puts national oil +35% for this winter, which would carry Kentucky’s figure to roughly $38/MMBtu. Propane averaged $2.67/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.

Heating degree-days: Kentucky’s own figure and the EIA division forecast

Kentucky itself logged 3,835 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO East South Central census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups Kentucky with its neighbours and is not a Kentucky figure:

January in the EIA East South Central census division (the coarse series that groups Kentucky with its neighbours) averaged about 38°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 42°F for January 2027, a season move of +16 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat Kentucky needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.

Heating oil prices in Kentucky

EIA’s weekly SHOPP survey priced residential No. 2 heating oil in Kentucky at $3.08/gal in the first October week of the 2025-26 season and $4.87 in the final March week — a season average of $3.28, low $2.86, high $4.87, against a national average of $4.01. The survey resumes in October 2026; the weekly tracker carries every state.

Where the heat pump crosses over in Kentucky

At last winter’s averages of 13.85¢/kWh and $1.49/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 2.59. Kentucky’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is about 29°F (COP 2.59 needed); the crossover tool runs seven named units at Kentucky’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.

From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving Kentucky fresh state propane and heating-oil readings on the weekly tracker .

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
• Propane vs oil heat cost — Kentucky’s two delivered fuels head to head, with the break-even price.
• Oil vs heat pump cost — Whether a cold-climate heat pump beats a 85% oil boiler at Kentucky’s electricity price.
• Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $1.49/therm.
• Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $2.67/gal against a heat pump at 13.85¢/kWh.
• Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
• Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $2.67/gal against resistance strips at 13.85¢/kWh.
• Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind Kentucky’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
• Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 13.85¢ and $1.49/therm — Kentucky needs COP 2.59 to beat gas.
• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns Kentucky’s balance point (about 29°F (COP 2.59 needed)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
• Heat pump sizing estimator — Kentucky sits in IECC zone 4A; a January mean near 38°F is the design context for capacity.
• Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a Kentucky bill jump into weather (2,848 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
• Solar panel cost in Kentucky — The same 13.81¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for Kentucky.
• Cost to heat a home in Kansas — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $14.84/MMBtu.
• Cost to heat a home in Virginia — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $17.68/MMBtu.