2026 Solar Savings Calculator: Payback at $0 Credit
At 17¢/kWh on full-retail net metering a typical system pays back in about 14.6 years with the federal credit at $0; enter your bill, rate and export rule.
· Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next EIA update ~Oct 23
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
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Advanced — production, self-use, cost per watt, inverter, maintenance, incentives
Secondary control: the slider nudges the rate field above (numeric input stays the precise, primary way in). The URL keeps your scenario.
- 2026 federal credit
- $0 for cash or loan
- Biggest lever
- Your rate + export rules
- Net metering, 17¢/kWh
- ~14.6-year payback
- Net billing, 30¢/kWh
- ~14.8-year payback
- Typical installed cost
- $2.50–$3.50 per watt
- Still 30%?
- Only via lease/PPA (§48E)
Why this number
Most solar calculators still quietly subtract a 30% federal credit, and most assume every kilowatt-hour you generate is worth full retail. For a 2026 buyer in a net-billing state, both assumptions are wrong, and together they can make payback look the better part of a decade shorter than it will be.
This one prices what you would actually get. Enter your numbers:
How this works
Every step is arithmetic you can check:
- Annual electricity use = monthly bill × 12 ÷ your rate.
- System size = annual use ÷ local production per kW. The Southwest yields around 1,705 kWh per kW per year; the Pacific Northwest closer to 1,060. Using one national figure for both is where a lot of published payback math goes wrong.
- Gross cost = size × your cost per watt. Net cost = gross − $0 federal credit − any state or utility incentive.
- Savings = on-site kilowatt-hours × your retail rate + exported kilowatt-hours × your export credit. Under full-retail net metering those two rates are the same and the split does not matter. Under net billing they are very different, and the split is most of the answer.
- 25-year model raises utility rates 2.5%/yr, degrades panel output 0.5%/yr, subtracts your annual maintenance figure, and books one inverter replacement around year 14. A string inverter rarely lasts the life of the panels, and leaving that out is one of the most common ways published payback figures come out optimistic. Set it to zero if you have microinverters with a 25-year warranty.
- Payback = the point where cumulative savings overtake net cost, reported to a tenth of a year rather than rounded up to the next whole one.
- “If you do nothing” = 25 years of rising bills with no system — the comparison most people never run.
What the model deliberately leaves out: fixed connection charges and taxes, which solar does not remove. A system that covers 100% of your energy charges will not take your bill to zero.
Payback by rate, on full-retail net metering
Holding everything else constant — a 10 kW system, 12,000 kWh a year, $3.00 per watt, $30,000 net with no federal credit, exports credited at retail — and changing only the electricity rate:
| Your rate | Example state | Year-1 saving | Payback | 25-year net | 25-year ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢/kWh | Nevada (13.1¢), Utah (13.4¢) | $1,440 | ~19.9 years | $10,300 | 34% |
| 15¢/kWh | Idaho (14.4¢), North Carolina (14.7¢), Florida (15.1¢) | $1,800 | ~16.4 years | $21,813 | 73% |
| 17¢/kWh | US average; Minnesota (17.5¢) | $2,040 | ~14.6 years | $29,488 | 98% |
| 20¢/kWh | Ohio (19.2¢), Wisconsin (19.6¢) | $2,400 | ~11.9 years | $41,000 | 137% |
| 25¢/kWh | Vermont (24.4¢) | $3,000 | ~9.6 years | $60,188 | 201% |
| 30¢/kWh | Rhode Island (29.2¢), New York (29.5¢) | $3,600 | ~8.1 years | $79,375 | 265% |
| 35¢/kWh | California (34.7¢) | $4,200 | ~7.0 years | $98,563 | 329% |
| 45¢/kWh | approaching Hawaii (52.7¢) | $5,400 | ~5.5 years | $136,938 | 456% |
Above 20¢ the case is comfortable without any help from Washington. Between 15¢ and 20¢ it is a long but real investment. Below 15¢, a cash purchase is a 16-to-20-year hold, and for most households at that rate the money does more elsewhere.
The table above assumes net metering. Many states no longer have it.
This is the part most calculators skip, and it matters more than the tax credit ever did.
Under net billing — California’s NEM 3.0 is the best-known example, and it is spreading — exported power earns far less than you pay to import. Around 8¢ for an export against a retail rate north of 30¢ is typical. Since a home consumes only about 40% of its generation as it is produced, the majority of what your panels make is sold at the low rate.
Same 10 kW system, same $30,000, exports at 8¢, 40% consumed on site:
| Your rate | Year-1 saving | Payback | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢/kWh | $1,536 | ~18.8 years | $13,370 |
| 25¢/kWh | $1,776 | ~16.6 years | $21,045 |
| 30¢/kWh | $2,016 | ~14.8 years | $28,720 |
| 35¢/kWh | $2,256 | ~12.6 years | $36,395 |
| 45¢/kWh | $2,736 | ~10.5 years | $51,745 |
Read those two tables side by side. At 30¢/kWh, net metering gives an 8.1-year payback and net billing gives 14.8 — for identical hardware on an identical roof. The tariff, not the panels, is the variable.
What changes it back
Raising self-consumption is the lever, because every kilowatt-hour you use yourself is worth full retail instead of 8¢. With a battery, an EV charged during daylight, or daytime occupancy pushing on-site use to 70%:
| Your rate | Year-1 saving | Payback | 25-year net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢/kWh | $1,968 | ~15.1 years | $27,185 |
| 25¢/kWh | $2,388 | ~11.9 years | $40,616 |
| 30¢/kWh | $2,808 | ~10.2 years | $54,048 |
| 35¢/kWh | $3,228 | ~9.0 years | $67,479 |
| 45¢/kWh | $4,068 | ~7.2 years | $94,341 |
That is the real argument for storage in a net-billing state, and it is an operating-cost argument rather than a tax one — see the battery calculator , which prices it directly, and how net metering rules changed for what your state currently does.
What changed federally, precisely
The §25D residential clean energy credit paid 30% of a home solar system’s cost, claimed on your own return. The 2025 budget law ended it for property placed in service after December 31, 2025 — no phase-down, no grace period for a cash or financed purchase. It is $0.
The 30% still quoted belongs to §48E, the clean electricity investment credit, a business credit claimed by whoever owns the equipment. For a homeowner that means one thing: it reaches you only if you don’t own the system — a lease or PPA, where an installer or fund owns the panels, claims the credit, and sells you the output. Our cash vs loan vs lease comparison runs that side by side.
Deadlines and eligibility turn on tests that have moved more than once. Check DSIRE for your state and confirm your own position with a tax professional — nothing here is tax advice.
The assumptions worth arguing with
- 2.5% annual utility inflation. Rates have risen faster in some territories and slower in others. Lower it and long-run savings fall sharply; the payback year moves much less.
- Production per kW. The regional presets are planning bands, not a site survey. A shaded or north-facing roof can fall well below its regional figure, and a real quote should be based on a modeled layout for your address.
- Self-consumption. Under net billing this is the input the answer is most sensitive to after your rate, and it is the one you can actually change.
Where to go next
Start with what solar costs in your state , then which states still have incentives — the federal credit is gone, but six states still run their own. For the full picture of which federal energy credits survived into 2026, see the 2026 energy tax credit guide .
Frequently asked questions
Does this include the 30% federal tax credit?
No, and that is the point. The residential credit (§25D) ended after 2025, so a 2026 cash or financed purchase gets $0. Most calculators still subtract 30%, which understates payback by several years. The only route where 30% still exists is a lease or PPA, where the company that owns the system claims the business credit (§48E) instead of you.
Why is my payback worse here than on other solar calculators?
Two reasons, both deliberate. First, the federal credit is genuinely $0 in 2026, and a $30,000 system that used to net $21,000 now costs the full $30,000. Second, this tool does not assume every kilowatt-hour you generate is worth full retail. Under net billing — which now covers California and a growing list of states — exported power is credited well below retail, and any model that ignores that overstates savings substantially.
What is the difference between net metering and net billing?
Under full-retail net metering, a kilowatt-hour you export earns the same as one you buy, so it makes no economic difference whether you use your generation or send it to the grid. Under net billing, exports earn far less — under California’s NEM 3.0 often around 8¢ against a retail rate above 30¢ — so the value of your system depends heavily on how much you consume on site rather than export.
What self-consumption figure should I use?
Without a battery, a typical home consumes roughly 30–50% of what its panels produce as it is produced, because generation peaks at midday when many households use least. A battery, an EV charged during the day, or working from home pushes it to 60–80%. It matters only under net billing; under full-retail net metering the figure barely changes the result.
How accurate is the estimate?
It is a transparent model driven entirely by your inputs, with every assumption listed under the result. Real quotes vary with roof pitch, shading, equipment and your utility’s specific tariff, which can move the answer by years. Use it to sanity-check a quote rather than to replace one, and confirm your utility’s current export rules before committing.
How we calculated this
Year-1 saving = self-consumed kWh × retail rate + exported kWh × export rate, where production = system kW × your state’s kWh-per-kW band and the self-consumption share is your input. Costs escalate at the rate-growth you set, output degrades 0.5%/yr, and payback = the year cumulative savings pass the net cost (federal credit $0 in 2026). The 25-year figure sums the escalated savings.Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.