$10.84 Gas vs $45.16 Electric: Cost to Heat a Home in Minnesota

In Minnesota the cheapest heat last winter was natural gas at $10.84 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $45.16 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.

Updated September 2026 · Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources

Minnesota heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel

The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in Minnesota that puts natural gas at $651 and electric resistance at $2,710 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to Minnesota’s own price (oil +35% is the large one) — direction, not a state forecast.

The prices behind the table

Minnesota’s June gas figure ($14.79/Mcf) runs 1.4× its winter average ($10.65) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.

What Minnesota’s utilities charge

The statewide 15.41¢ hides a 3.3¢ spread between Minnesota’s largest utilities, worth $9.67 per MMBtu on resistance heat and $4.46 on a heat pump. The ZIP lookup finds yours.

How Minnesota homes are heated

Natural gas heats 65.3% of Minnesota’s 2,282,967 occupied homes against 46.8% nationally, with electricity at 18.8%, propane at 10.9% and heating oil at 1.3%. That lines up with the table above: natural gas was also Minnesota’s cheapest heat last winter at $10.84 per MMBtu.

What the numbers say about Minnesota

At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in Minnesota was natural gas at about $11 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $45 — a 4.2× spread between the two columns. Gas beat a cold-climate heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17) by $9.97/MMBtu, and at 47°F (COP 3.2, $14.11) the heat pump still trails. At Minnesota’s winter rates the economic balance point lands above 47°F (COP 4.17 needed against 3.20 available), so the furnace is cheaper at every rated temperature. Heating oil averaged $3.63/gal across 26 SHOPP survey weeks and finished the season at $4.25 on March 30, 2026; EIA’s September outlook puts national oil +35% for this winter, which would carry Minnesota’s figure to roughly $41/MMBtu. Propane averaged $1.95/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.

Heating degree-days: Minnesota’s own figure and the EIA division forecast

Minnesota itself logged 6,878 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO West North Central census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups Minnesota with its neighbours and is not a Minnesota figure:

January in the EIA West North Central census division (the coarse series that groups Minnesota with its neighbours) averaged about 21°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 24°F for January 2027, a season move of +373 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat Minnesota needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.

Heating oil prices in Minnesota

EIA’s weekly SHOPP survey priced residential No. 2 heating oil in Minnesota at $3.50/gal in the first October week of the 2025-26 season and $4.25 in the final March week — a season average of $3.63, low $3.41, high $4.25, against a national average of $4.01. The survey resumes in October 2026; the weekly tracker carries every state.

Where the heat pump crosses over in Minnesota

At last winter’s averages of 15.41¢/kWh and $1.03/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 4.17. Minnesota’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is above 47°F (COP 4.17 needed against 3.20 available), so the furnace is cheaper at every rated temperature; the crossover tool runs seven named units at Minnesota’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.

From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving Minnesota fresh state propane and heating-oil readings on the weekly tracker .

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
• Propane vs oil heat cost — Minnesota’s two delivered fuels head to head, with the break-even price.
• Oil vs heat pump cost — Whether a cold-climate heat pump beats a 85% oil boiler at Minnesota’s electricity price.
• Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $1.03/therm.
• Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $1.95/gal against a heat pump at 15.41¢/kWh.
• Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
• Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $1.95/gal against resistance strips at 15.41¢/kWh.
• Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind Minnesota’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
• Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 15.41¢ and $1.03/therm — Minnesota needs COP 4.17 to beat gas.
• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns Minnesota’s balance point (above 47°F (COP 4.17 needed against 3.20 available)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
• Heat pump sizing estimator — Minnesota sits in IECC zone 6A; a January mean near 21°F is the design context for capacity.
• Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a Minnesota bill jump into weather (5,051 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
• Solar panel cost in Minnesota — The same 17.45¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for Minnesota.
• Cost to run a space heater in Minnesota — 1,500 W at Minnesota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to run a heat pump in Minnesota — 3,500 W at Minnesota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to run a ductless mini-split in Minnesota — 2,000 W at Minnesota’s winter rate and degree-days — the per-hour and per-winter figure for one room.
• Cost to heat a home in Maine — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $19.89/MMBtu.
• Cost to heat a home in North Dakota — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $10.11/MMBtu.