Cost to Heat a Home in Virginia: Gas vs Propane vs Heat Pump

In Virginia the cheapest heat last winter was natural gas at $17.68 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $47.10 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.

Updated September 2026 · Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources

Virginia heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel

The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in Virginia that puts natural gas at $1,061 and electric resistance at $2,826 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to Virginia’s own price (oil +35% is the large one) — direction, not a state forecast.

The prices behind the table

Virginia’s June gas figure ($27.20/Mcf) runs 1.6× its winter average ($17.44) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.

What Virginia’s utilities charge

The statewide 16.07¢ hides a 2.9¢ spread between Virginia’s largest utilities, worth $8.50 per MMBtu on resistance heat and $3.92 on a heat pump. The ZIP lookup finds yours.

How Virginia homes are heated

Electricity heats 57.2% of Virginia’s 3,326,260 occupied homes against 40.8% nationally, with electricity at 57.2%, propane at 4.3% and heating oil at 3.4%. The table above says otherwise for last winter: the households on electricity paid about $47.10 per MMBtu while natural gas delivered the same heat for $17.68, a $29.41 gap on every million Btu.

What the numbers say about Virginia

At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in Virginia was natural gas at about $18 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $47 — a 2.7× spread between the two columns. Gas beat a cold-climate heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17) by $4.02/MMBtu, and at 47°F (COP 3.2, $14.72) the heat pump pulls ahead. At Virginia’s winter rates the economic balance point lands about 31°F (COP 2.66 needed). Heating oil averaged $3.88/gal across 26 SHOPP survey weeks and finished the season at $5.28 on March 30, 2026; EIA’s September outlook puts national oil +35% for this winter, which would carry Virginia’s figure to roughly $44/MMBtu. Propane averaged $3.46/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.

Heating degree-days: Virginia’s own figure and the EIA division forecast

Virginia itself logged 3,869 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO South Atlantic census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups Virginia with its neighbours and is not a Virginia figure:

January in the EIA South Atlantic census division (the coarse series that groups Virginia with its neighbours) averaged about 45°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 48°F for January 2027, a season move of -192 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat Virginia needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.

Heating oil prices in Virginia

EIA’s weekly SHOPP survey priced residential No. 2 heating oil in Virginia at $3.65/gal in the first October week of the 2025-26 season and $5.28 in the final March week — a season average of $3.88, low $3.61, high $5.28, against a national average of $4.01. The survey resumes in October 2026; the weekly tracker carries every state.

Where the heat pump crosses over in Virginia

At last winter’s averages of 16.07¢/kWh and $1.68/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 2.66. Virginia’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is about 31°F (COP 2.66 needed); the crossover tool runs seven named units at Virginia’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.

From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving Virginia fresh state propane and heating-oil readings on the weekly tracker .

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
• Propane vs oil heat cost — Virginia’s two delivered fuels head to head, with the break-even price.
• Oil vs heat pump cost — Whether a cold-climate heat pump beats a 85% oil boiler at Virginia’s electricity price.
• Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $1.68/therm.
• Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $3.46/gal against a heat pump at 16.07¢/kWh.
• Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
• Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $3.46/gal against resistance strips at 16.07¢/kWh.
• Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind Virginia’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
• Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 16.07¢ and $1.68/therm — Virginia needs COP 2.66 to beat gas.
• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns Virginia’s balance point (about 31°F (COP 2.66 needed)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
• Heat pump sizing estimator — Virginia sits in IECC zone 4A; a January mean near 45°F is the design context for capacity.
• Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a Virginia bill jump into weather (2,326 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
• Solar panel cost in Virginia — The same 17.55¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for Virginia.
• Cost to heat a home in Kentucky — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $15.68/MMBtu.
• Cost to heat a home in Missouri — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was a cold-climate heat pump at $16.96/MMBtu.