Oil vs Heat Pump Cost: Heat Pump Wins This Winter
Heat Pump wins: $24.62 vs $45.02 per MMBtu at EIA’s winter outlook; heating oil was cheaper in 6 of 29 states last winter — your own two prices decide it below.
· Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
Jump to calculator ↓Prefilled with EIA's national last-winter averages for heating oil, electricity; the second preset switches to the forecast. Per-unit rates only; leave out the fixed monthly charge.
Advanced — efficiencies, gas unit, COP, seasonal load
Sliders scale the prefilled prices to test sensitivity; the numeric fields stay the precise inputs. Presets:
- Oil (EIA outlook)
- $45.02/MMBtu
- Heat Pump (EIA outlook)
- $24.62/MMBtu
- States compared
- 29 with both prices
- Oil cheaper in
- 6 states
- Heat Pump cheaper in
- 23 states
- Widest oil win
- Maine
- Widest heat pump win
- North Dakota
- Federal credit
- §25C ended 31 Dec 2025
Why this number
Oil and heat pump are priced in different units, so the only comparison that means anything for this pair is dollars per million Btu delivered — price per unit, converted to heat content, divided by appliance efficiency. For heating oil against a cold-climate heat pump that is $45.02 against $24.62 at EIA’s national outlook, then every state’s own published prices below, then yours in the calculator.
The break-even rule
A heat pump beats oil whenever COP > 2.9307 × ¢/kWh × oil AFUE ÷ (oil $/gal ÷ 1.385 × 100) — or, turned around, while electricity stays below oil $/MMBtu × COP ÷ 2.9307 cents. At $5.30/gal and 85% AFUE ($45.02/MMBtu), a COP-2.17 heat pump wins up to 33.3¢/kWh and even a COP-1.9 cold-snap rating wins up to 29.2¢.
National picture: last winter measured, this winter forecast
| Option | Last winter (EIA national average, Oct 2025–Mar 2026) | This winter (EIA STEO September 2026 forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Heating oil boiler (85% AFUE) | $33.47/MMBtu | $45.02/MMBtu ($5.30/gal) |
| Heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17, NEEP median 3-ton ducted) | $24.00/MMBtu | $24.62/MMBtu (18.23¢/kWh at COP 2.17) |
Heating oil is the fuel EIA moves most this winter: +35% nationally on a Brent path near $90.9 for 2026 against $69.1 in 2025. Electricity is forecast +3%.
Oil vs heat pump by state, last winter
Heating oil at the state’s SHOPP season average through an 85% AFUE boiler (regional where marked); a heat pump at the state’s winter-average electricity price and COP 2.17, the NEEP median for the 3-ton ducted class at 17°F. States with no published EIA price for one of the two are left out rather than filled from a national number. Sorted from the widest heating oil advantage to the widest a cold-climate heat pump advantage.
| State | Oil $/MMBtu | Heat Pump $/MMBtu | Cheaper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | $31.65 | $40.26 | Oil | $8.61 (21%) |
| Massachusetts | $35.01 | $41.71 | Oil | $6.70 (16%) |
| Rhode Island | $34.95 | $41.11 | Oil | $6.16 (15%) |
| Connecticut | $33.54 | $38.17 | Oil | $4.63 (12%) |
| New Hampshire | $33.11 | $36.17 | Oil | $3.06 (8%) |
| New York | $36.47 | $37.76 | Oil | $1.30 (3%) |
| Vermont | $33.21 | $32.16 | Heat Pump | $1.06 (3%) |
| Michigan | $28.69 | $27.16 | Heat Pump | $1.53 (5%) |
| Wisconsin | $28.12 | $24.84 | Heat Pump | $3.29 (12%) |
| Pennsylvania | $31.68 | $27.50 | Heat Pump | $4.19 (13%) |
| New Jersey | $36.52 | $31.06 | Heat Pump | $5.45 (15%) |
| Illinois | $30.00 (regional) | $24.12 | Heat Pump | $5.88 (20%) |
| Maryland | $34.36 | $28.39 | Heat Pump | $5.97 (17%) |
| Indiana | $30.00 | $22.68 | Heat Pump | $7.33 (24%) |
| Ohio | $31.73 | $24.03 | Heat Pump | $7.71 (24%) |
| Nebraska | $24.84 | $16.63 | Heat Pump | $8.21 (33%) |
| Kentucky | $27.88 | $18.71 | Heat Pump | $9.17 (33%) |
| Iowa | $27.25 | $17.69 | Heat Pump | $9.56 (35%) |
| Kansas | $30.00 (regional) | $20.12 | Heat Pump | $9.88 (33%) |
| Minnesota | $30.82 | $20.81 | Heat Pump | $10.01 (32%) |
| North Carolina | $30.16 | $19.69 | Heat Pump | $10.46 (35%) |
| South Carolina | $31.75 (regional) | $21.16 | Heat Pump | $10.59 (33%) |
| Florida | $31.75 (regional) | $20.95 | Heat Pump | $10.80 (34%) |
| Virginia | $32.97 | $21.70 | Heat Pump | $11.26 (34%) |
| South Dakota | $30.00 (regional) | $18.35 | Heat Pump | $11.65 (39%) |
| Georgia | $31.75 (regional) | $19.41 | Heat Pump | $12.34 (39%) |
| Missouri | $30.00 (regional) | $16.96 | Heat Pump | $13.04 (43%) |
| Delaware | $37.65 | $23.55 | Heat Pump | $14.09 (37%) |
| North Dakota | $30.00 (regional) | $15.81 | Heat Pump | $14.19 (47%) |
Reading the heating oil-vs-a cold-climate heat pump table honestly
Three things this column cannot see for heating oil against a cold-climate heat pump. The fixed monthly customer charge does not change the $45.02-vs-$24.62 per-unit answer, but it disappears entirely if you drop one of these fuels. Equipment is outside it: nothing here prices a new heating oil boiler or heat pump at 17°f, and there is no federal credit for either in 2026. And temperature: the heat pump row is its 17°F rating (COP 2.17); at 5°F the NEEP median is 1.9 ($28.12/MMBtu) and at 47°F 3.2 ($16.70), so a cold-climate heat pump moves through the season while heating oil does not — the crossover tool finds the switch point.
Weighing the whole season rather than the unit price? The heat pump vs furnace calculator starts from your annual heating spend, and the winter heating hub puts all five options on one national table.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper than oil heat?
Yes — at EIA’s national outlook a heat pump costs $24.62 per MMBtu delivered against $45.02 for oil; last winter heating oil was cheaper in 6 of the 29 states with published prices, so your own two prices decide it.
Is heating oil cheaper than a cold-climate heat pump for heating?
At EIA’s national outlook prices for this winter, a cold-climate heat pump is cheaper: $24.62 against $45.02 per million Btu delivered. Last winter’s state averages split 6 states for heating oil and 23 for a cold-climate heat pump, so the honest answer depends on the two prices on your own bills, which the calculator takes directly. The comparison is per unit of delivered heat and ignores the fixed monthly customer charge and equipment cost.
What efficiencies does this comparison assume?
Heating oil at the state’s SHOPP season average through an 85% AFUE boiler (regional where marked); a heat pump at the state’s winter-average electricity price and COP 2.17, the NEEP median for the 3-ton ducted class at 17°F. For heating oil against a cold-climate heat pump every efficiency is editable, and an 80% atmospheric furnace against a 97% condensing one moves this pair’s answer more than a year’s price change.
Why do the state figures use last winter rather than a forecast?
Because heating oil and a cold-climate heat pump state prices are published by EIA only after the fact (SHOPP runs October to March; the Natural Gas Monthly lags two months) and no agency forecasts them by state. The September 2026 STEO moves the national heating oil price by +35% and a cold-climate heat pump by +3%; the calculator’s ’this winter’ preset applies those two changes.
Does a tax credit change the heating oil vs a cold-climate heat pump answer?
Not in 2026. The §25C credit for heat pumps, furnaces and boilers ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, so nothing installed for this winter qualifies federally. State and utility rebates continue and are listed on DSIRE. This page is a running-cost comparison, not tax advice.
How we calculated this
Worked for heating oil vs a cold-climate heat pump at EIA’s outlook: oil 10 × ($5.30/gal ÷ 1.385) ÷ 0.85 = $45.02/MMBtu; heat pump 293.07 × 0.1823 $/kWh ÷ 2.17 = $24.62/MMBtu. State rows use each state’s October–March EIA average through the same conversions.Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.
Where to go next
- Winter heating cost hub — Where heating oil ($45.02) and a cold-climate heat pump ($24.62) sit among all five options on the national table.
- Cost to heat a home in Maine — The widest gap in this table: oil $31.65 vs heat pump $40.26 per MMBtu.
- Cost to heat a home in North Dakota — The widest gap in this table: oil $30.00 vs heat pump $15.81 per MMBtu.
- Propane vs Oil Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Propane vs Electric Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Gas vs Heat Pump Heating Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — The weekly EIA survey readings behind every delivered-fuel figure in this table.
- Heat pump vs furnace cost calculator — Whole-season dollars from your own annual heating spend rather than per-MMBtu.
- Heat pump crossover temperature — Named NEEP units: the exact outdoor temperature where the furnace takes over.
- Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Set the changeover point if you keep the old furnace as backup.