Gas vs Heat Pump Heating Cost: Gas Wins in 42 of 50 States
Gas wins: $14.32 vs $24.62 per MMBtu at EIA’s winter outlook; natural gas was cheaper in 42 of 50 states last winter — your own two prices decide it below.
· Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
Jump to calculator ↓Prefilled with EIA's national last-winter averages for gas, electricity; the second preset switches to the forecast. Per-unit rates only; leave out the fixed monthly charge.
Advanced — efficiencies, gas unit, COP, seasonal load
Sliders scale the prefilled prices to test sensitivity; the numeric fields stay the precise inputs. Presets:
- Gas (EIA outlook)
- $14.32/MMBtu
- Heat Pump (EIA outlook)
- $24.62/MMBtu
- States compared
- 50 with both prices
- Gas cheaper in
- 42 states
- Heat Pump cheaper in
- 8 states
- Widest gas win
- Alaska
- Widest heat pump win
- Arkansas
- Federal credit
- §25C ended 31 Dec 2025
Why this number
Gas and heat pump are priced in different units, so the only comparison that means anything for this pair is dollars per million Btu delivered — price per unit, converted to heat content, divided by appliance efficiency. For natural gas against a cold-climate heat pump that is $14.32 against $24.62 at EIA’s national outlook, then every state’s own published prices below, then yours in the calculator.
The break-even rule
A heat pump beats gas whenever COP > 29.307 × $/kWh × furnace AFUE ÷ gas $/therm. At EIA’s national outlook of 18.23¢/kWh and $1.36/therm with a 95% furnace, the threshold is COP 3.73 — above the NEEP 17°F median of 2.17, which is why the national answer is so close and the state answer is what matters.
National picture: last winter measured, this winter forecast
| Option | Last winter (EIA national average, Oct 2025–Mar 2026) | This winter (EIA STEO September 2026 forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace (95% AFUE) | $15.79/MMBtu | $14.32/MMBtu ($1.36/therm) |
| Heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17, NEEP median 3-ton ducted) | $24.00/MMBtu | $24.62/MMBtu (18.23¢/kWh at COP 2.17) |
Natural gas moves the other way, -10% on the residential price. Electricity is forecast +3%.
Gas vs heat pump by state, last winter
Natural gas at the state’s October 2025–March 2026 residential average (EIA Natural Gas Monthly, 10.38 therms per Mcf) through a 95% AFUE furnace; a heat pump at the state’s winter-average electricity price and COP 2.17, the NEEP median for the 3-ton ducted class at 17°F. States with no published EIA price for one of the two are left out rather than filled from a national number. Sorted from the widest natural gas advantage to the widest a cold-climate heat pump advantage.
| State | Gas $/MMBtu | Heat Pump $/MMBtu | Cheaper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | $13.37 | $35.26 | Gas | $21.89 (62%) |
| California | $22.63 | $44.37 | Gas | $21.73 (49%) |
| Connecticut | $17.68 | $38.17 | Gas | $20.48 (54%) |
| Maine | $19.89 | $40.26 | Gas | $20.37 (51%) |
| New York | $18.42 | $37.76 | Gas | $19.34 (51%) |
| Rhode Island | $22.53 | $41.11 | Gas | $18.58 (45%) |
| Massachusetts | $25.37 | $41.71 | Gas | $16.34 (39%) |
| New Hampshire | $20.00 | $36.17 | Gas | $16.17 (45%) |
| New Jersey | $14.95 | $31.06 | Gas | $16.12 (52%) |
| Michigan | $11.05 | $27.16 | Gas | $16.11 (59%) |
| Vermont | $18.53 | $32.16 | Gas | $13.63 (42%) |
| Wisconsin | $11.47 | $24.84 | Gas | $13.36 (54%) |
| Illinois | $11.58 | $24.12 | Gas | $12.54 (52%) |
| Pennsylvania | $15.68 | $27.50 | Gas | $11.81 (43%) |
| Colorado | $11.26 | $22.22 | Gas | $10.95 (49%) |
| Indiana | $11.89 | $22.68 | Gas | $10.78 (48%) |
| Maryland | $17.79 | $28.39 | Gas | $10.60 (37%) |
| Minnesota | $10.84 | $20.81 | Gas | $9.97 (48%) |
| Ohio | $14.42 | $24.03 | Gas | $9.61 (40%) |
| Idaho | $7.37 | $16.72 | Gas | $9.35 (56%) |
| New Mexico | $10.95 | $20.20 | Gas | $9.26 (46%) |
| Montana | $9.37 | $17.91 | Gas | $8.54 (48%) |
| South Dakota | $10.32 | $18.35 | Gas | $8.04 (44%) |
| Nevada | $10.95 | $18.76 | Gas | $7.81 (42%) |
| Iowa | $10.84 | $17.69 | Gas | $6.85 (39%) |
| Utah | $11.05 | $17.81 | Gas | $6.76 (38%) |
| West Virginia | $14.42 | $20.70 | Gas | $6.28 (30%) |
| North Dakota | $10.11 | $15.81 | Gas | $5.71 (36%) |
| Wyoming | $12.63 | $18.30 | Gas | $5.67 (31%) |
| Kansas | $14.84 | $20.12 | Gas | $5.28 (26%) |
| Delaware | $19.05 | $23.55 | Gas | $4.50 (19%) |
| Virginia | $17.68 | $21.70 | Gas | $4.02 (19%) |
| Tennessee | $14.32 | $18.10 | Gas | $3.78 (21%) |
| Oregon | $16.84 | $20.46 | Gas | $3.62 (18%) |
| Oklahoma | $14.42 | $17.80 | Gas | $3.38 (19%) |
| South Carolina | $17.79 | $21.16 | Gas | $3.37 (16%) |
| Alabama | $18.84 | $22.11 | Gas | $3.27 (15%) |
| Nebraska | $13.47 | $16.63 | Gas | $3.15 (19%) |
| Kentucky | $15.68 | $18.71 | Gas | $3.02 (16%) |
| Mississippi | $17.26 | $20.08 | Gas | $2.82 (14%) |
| Arizona | $19.68 | $21.14 | Gas | $1.45 (7%) |
| Washington | $17.37 | $18.81 | Gas | $1.44 (8%) |
| Georgia | $19.68 | $19.41 | Heat Pump | $0.28 (1%) |
| North Carolina | $20.11 | $19.69 | Heat Pump | $0.41 (2%) |
| Missouri | $17.58 | $16.96 | Heat Pump | $0.62 (4%) |
| Hawaii | $56.95 | $55.51 | Heat Pump | $1.44 (3%) |
| Texas | $22.95 | $21.50 | Heat Pump | $1.45 (6%) |
| Louisiana | $21.16 | $17.37 | Heat Pump | $3.79 (18%) |
| Florida | $26.42 | $20.95 | Heat Pump | $5.47 (21%) |
| Arkansas | $23.89 | $17.45 | Heat Pump | $6.45 (27%) |
Reading the natural gas-vs-a cold-climate heat pump table honestly
Three things this column cannot see for natural gas against a cold-climate heat pump. The fixed monthly customer charge does not change the $14.32-vs-$24.62 per-unit answer, but it disappears entirely if you drop one of these fuels. Equipment is outside it: nothing here prices a new natural gas furnace or heat pump at 17°f, and there is no federal credit for either in 2026. And temperature: the heat pump row is its 17°F rating (COP 2.17); at 5°F the NEEP median is 1.9 ($28.12/MMBtu) and at 47°F 3.2 ($16.70), so a cold-climate heat pump moves through the season while natural gas does not — the crossover tool finds the switch point.
Weighing the whole season rather than the unit price? The heat pump vs furnace calculator starts from your annual heating spend, and the winter heating hub puts all five options on one national table.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper than natural gas?
No — at EIA’s national outlook gas costs $14.32 per MMBtu delivered against $24.62 for a heat pump; last winter natural gas was cheaper in 42 of the 50 states with published prices, so your own two prices decide it.
Is natural gas cheaper than a cold-climate heat pump for heating?
At EIA’s national outlook prices for this winter, natural gas is cheaper: $14.32 against $24.62 per million Btu delivered. Last winter’s state averages split 42 states for natural gas and 8 for a cold-climate heat pump, so the honest answer depends on the two prices on your own bills, which the calculator takes directly. The comparison is per unit of delivered heat and ignores the fixed monthly customer charge and equipment cost.
What efficiencies does this comparison assume?
Natural gas at the state’s October 2025–March 2026 residential average (EIA Natural Gas Monthly, 10.38 therms per Mcf) through a 95% AFUE furnace; a heat pump at the state’s winter-average electricity price and COP 2.17, the NEEP median for the 3-ton ducted class at 17°F. For natural gas against a cold-climate heat pump every efficiency is editable, and an 80% atmospheric furnace against a 97% condensing one moves this pair’s answer more than a year’s price change.
Why do the state figures use last winter rather than a forecast?
Because natural gas and a cold-climate heat pump state prices are published by EIA only after the fact (SHOPP runs October to March; the Natural Gas Monthly lags two months) and no agency forecasts them by state. The September 2026 STEO moves the national natural gas price by -10% and a cold-climate heat pump by +3%; the calculator’s ’this winter’ preset applies those two changes.
Does a tax credit change the natural gas vs a cold-climate heat pump answer?
Not in 2026. The §25C credit for heat pumps, furnaces and boilers ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, so nothing installed for this winter qualifies federally. State and utility rebates continue and are listed on DSIRE. This page is a running-cost comparison, not tax advice.
How we calculated this
Worked for natural gas vs a cold-climate heat pump at EIA’s outlook: gas 10 × $1.36/therm ÷ 0.95 = $14.32/MMBtu; heat pump 293.07 × 0.1823 $/kWh ÷ 2.17 = $24.62/MMBtu. State rows use each state’s October–March EIA average through the same conversions.Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.
Where to go next
- Winter heating cost hub — Where natural gas ($14.32) and a cold-climate heat pump ($24.62) sit among all five options on the national table.
- Cost to heat a home in Alaska — The widest gap in this table: gas $13.37 vs heat pump $35.26 per MMBtu.
- Propane vs Oil Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Propane vs Electric Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Oil vs Heat Pump Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Heat pump vs furnace cost calculator — Whole-season dollars from your own annual heating spend rather than per-MMBtu.
- Heat pump crossover temperature — Named NEEP units: the exact outdoor temperature where the furnace takes over.
- Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Set the changeover point if you keep the old furnace as backup.