Cost to Heat a Home in Tennessee: Gas vs Propane vs Heat Pump

In Tennessee the cheapest heat last winter was natural gas at $14.32 per MMBtu delivered; electric resistance cost $39.27 — EIA prices, October 2025 to March 2026.

Updated September 2026 · Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources

Tennessee heating cost per MMBtu, fuel by fuel

The season column is an illustrative 60 MMBtu of delivered heat; in Tennessee that puts natural gas at $859 and electric resistance at $2,356 for the winter. The this-winter column applies EIA’s national STEO change per fuel to Tennessee’s own price (electricity +3%) — direction, not a state forecast.

The prices behind the table

Tennessee’s June gas figure ($19.75/Mcf) runs 1.4× its winter average ($14.13) because EIA’s residential price is average revenue per Mcf with the fixed charge folded in; the high-volume winter months are the closest published proxy for the marginal rate this page needs.

What Tennessee’s utilities charge

The statewide 13.4¢ hides a 1.7¢ spread between Tennessee’s largest utilities, worth $4.98 per MMBtu on resistance heat and $2.30 on a heat pump. The ZIP lookup finds yours.

How Tennessee homes are heated

Electricity heats 63.3% of Tennessee’s 2,768,743 occupied homes against 40.8% nationally, with electricity at 63.3%, propane at 3.7% and heating oil at 0.3%. The table above says otherwise for last winter: the households on electricity paid about $39.27 per MMBtu while natural gas delivered the same heat for $14.32, a $24.96 gap on every million Btu.

What the numbers say about Tennessee

At last winter’s average prices, the cheapest way to heat a home in Tennessee was natural gas at about $14 per million Btu delivered, and the most expensive was electric resistance at $39 — a 2.7× spread between the two columns. Gas beat a cold-climate heat pump at 17°F (COP 2.17) by $3.78/MMBtu, and at 47°F (COP 3.2, $12.27) the heat pump pulls ahead. At Tennessee’s winter rates the economic balance point lands about 34°F (COP 2.74 needed). No EIA state or regional heating-oil series exists for Tennessee; the oil row is the national STEO average ($3.94/gal last winter, $5.30 forecast) and is labelled as such. Propane averaged $3.15/gal in the state survey, with a national -5% outlook for this winter.

Heating degree-days: Tennessee’s own figure and the EIA division forecast

Tennessee itself logged 3,178 population-weighted heating degree-days from October 2025 to March 2026 (NOAA Climate Prediction Center state series, base 65°F), against 3,500 for the contiguous US. The month-by-month table below is a different, coarser series — EIA STEO East South Central census division degree-days, the only one with a forecast for the coming winter; it groups Tennessee with its neighbours and is not a Tennessee figure:

January in the EIA East South Central census division (the coarse series that groups Tennessee with its neighbours) averaged about 38°F last winter (65°F minus degree-days per day) and is forecast at 42°F for January 2027, a season move of +16 degree-days. Degree-days set how much heat Tennessee needs, the table above sets the price per unit, and the bill jump calculator multiplies the two.

Where the heat pump crosses over in Tennessee

At last winter’s averages of 13.4¢/kWh and $1.36/therm, a heat pump beats a 95% gas furnace whenever its COP exceeds 2.74. Tennessee’s economic balance point on the NEEP median curve is about 34°F (COP 2.74 needed); the crossover tool runs seven named units at Tennessee’s prices and the dual-fuel calculator turns the answer into a changeover setting.

From October 6 the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook adds household expenditure by region and the weekly SHOPP survey restarts, giving Tennessee fresh state propane readings on the weekly tracker .

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Winter heating cost hub: gas vs propane vs oil vs electric — The national table, the arithmetic behind every row here, and all {len(COLD)} state pages.
• Gas vs heat pump heating cost — The COP a heat pump needs to beat gas at $1.36/therm.
• Propane vs heat pump cost — Propane at $3.15/gal against a heat pump at 13.4¢/kWh.
• Electric vs gas heat cost — Resistance heat versus gas across every state with a published gas price.
• Propane vs electric heat cost — Propane at $3.15/gal against resistance strips at 13.4¢/kWh.
• Heating oil and propane prices by state (weekly tracker) — Every SHOPP weekly reading behind Tennessee’s oil and propane figures, with season lows, highs and trend lines.
• Heat pump crossover temperature — Seven named NEEP units at 13.4¢ and $1.36/therm — Tennessee needs COP 2.74 to beat gas.
• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Turns Tennessee’s balance point (about 34°F (COP 2.74 needed)) into a thermostat changeover setting.
• Heat pump sizing estimator — Tennessee sits in IECC zone 4A; a January mean near 38°F is the design context for capacity.
• Why is my electric bill so high? — Splits a Tennessee bill jump into weather (2,848 degree-days last winter), rate and usage.
• Solar panel cost in Tennessee — The same 13.71¢/kWh July rate driving payback, utilities and rate history for Tennessee.
• Cost to heat a home in Alaska — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $13.37/MMBtu.
• Cost to heat a home in Oregon — Cold-state neighbour on this list: cheapest heat there was natural gas at $16.84/MMBtu.