Electric vs Gas Heat Cost: Gas Wins by 3.7x This Winter
Gas wins: $14.32 vs $53.43 per MMBtu at EIA’s winter outlook; electric resistance was cheaper in 0 of 50 states last winter — your own two prices decide it below.
· Source: EIA STEO September 2026, Natural Gas Monthly, SHOPP · EPM Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data) · next: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook Oct 6, weekly SHOPP prices from October
On this page: CalculatorTableHow we calculatedSources
Jump to calculator ↓Prefilled with EIA's national last-winter averages for electricity, gas; the second preset switches to the forecast. Per-unit rates only; leave out the fixed monthly charge.
Advanced — efficiencies, gas unit, COP, seasonal load
Sliders scale the prefilled prices to test sensitivity; the numeric fields stay the precise inputs. Presets:
- Electric (EIA outlook)
- $53.43/MMBtu
- Gas (EIA outlook)
- $14.32/MMBtu
- States compared
- 50 with both prices
- Electric cheaper in
- 0 states
- Gas cheaper in
- 50 states
- Widest electric win
- Arkansas
- Widest gas win
- California
- Federal credit
- §25C ended 31 Dec 2025
Why this number
Electric and gas are priced in different units, so the only comparison that means anything for this pair is dollars per million Btu delivered — price per unit, converted to heat content, divided by appliance efficiency. For electric resistance against natural gas that is $53.43 against $14.32 at EIA’s national outlook, then every state’s own published prices below, then yours in the calculator.
The break-even rule
Resistance heat beats gas only when ¢/kWh < 3.412 × gas $/therm ÷ furnace AFUE — at $1.36/therm and 95% AFUE, that is electricity under 4.9¢/kWh, which no state averaged last winter. A heat pump raises that ceiling by its COP: 10.6¢ at COP 2.17, 15.6¢ at COP 3.2.
National picture: last winter measured, this winter forecast
| Option | Last winter (EIA national average, Oct 2025–Mar 2026) | This winter (EIA STEO September 2026 forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Electric resistance (COP 1.00) | $52.08/MMBtu | $53.43/MMBtu (18.23¢/kWh) |
| Natural gas furnace (95% AFUE) | $15.79/MMBtu | $14.32/MMBtu ($1.36/therm) |
Natural gas moves the other way, -10% on the residential price. Electricity is forecast +3%.
Electric vs gas by state, last winter
Electric resistance at the state’s winter-average electricity price (COP 1.00); natural gas at the state’s October 2025–March 2026 residential average (EIA Natural Gas Monthly, 10.38 therms per Mcf) through a 95% AFUE furnace. States with no published EIA price for one of the two are left out rather than filled from a national number. Sorted from the widest electric resistance advantage to the widest natural gas advantage.
| State | Electric $/MMBtu | Gas $/MMBtu | Cheaper | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | $37.86 | $23.89 | Gas | $13.97 (37%) |
| Louisiana | $37.69 | $21.16 | Gas | $16.53 (44%) |
| Florida | $45.46 | $26.42 | Gas | $19.03 (42%) |
| Missouri | $36.81 | $17.58 | Gas | $19.23 (52%) |
| Georgia | $42.11 | $19.68 | Gas | $22.43 (53%) |
| Nebraska | $36.08 | $13.47 | Gas | $22.60 (63%) |
| North Carolina | $42.73 | $20.11 | Gas | $22.62 (53%) |
| Washington | $40.82 | $17.37 | Gas | $23.46 (57%) |
| Texas | $46.66 | $22.95 | Gas | $23.71 (51%) |
| Oklahoma | $38.63 | $14.42 | Gas | $24.21 (63%) |
| North Dakota | $34.32 | $10.11 | Gas | $24.21 (71%) |
| Kentucky | $40.59 | $15.68 | Gas | $24.91 (61%) |
| Tennessee | $39.27 | $14.32 | Gas | $24.96 (64%) |
| Arizona | $45.87 | $19.68 | Gas | $26.18 (57%) |
| Mississippi | $43.58 | $17.26 | Gas | $26.32 (60%) |
| Wyoming | $39.71 | $12.63 | Gas | $27.08 (68%) |
| Iowa | $38.39 | $10.84 | Gas | $27.55 (72%) |
| Oregon | $44.40 | $16.84 | Gas | $27.56 (62%) |
| Utah | $38.66 | $11.05 | Gas | $27.60 (71%) |
| South Carolina | $45.92 | $17.79 | Gas | $28.13 (61%) |
| Kansas | $43.67 | $14.84 | Gas | $28.83 (66%) |
| Idaho | $36.28 | $7.37 | Gas | $28.91 (80%) |
| Alabama | $47.98 | $18.84 | Gas | $29.13 (61%) |
| Virginia | $47.10 | $17.68 | Gas | $29.41 (62%) |
| Montana | $38.86 | $9.37 | Gas | $29.49 (76%) |
| South Dakota | $39.83 | $10.32 | Gas | $29.51 (74%) |
| Nevada | $40.71 | $10.95 | Gas | $29.76 (73%) |
| West Virginia | $44.93 | $14.42 | Gas | $30.51 (68%) |
| Delaware | $51.11 | $19.05 | Gas | $32.06 (63%) |
| New Mexico | $43.84 | $10.95 | Gas | $32.90 (75%) |
| Minnesota | $45.16 | $10.84 | Gas | $34.32 (76%) |
| Colorado | $48.21 | $11.26 | Gas | $36.95 (77%) |
| Indiana | $49.21 | $11.89 | Gas | $37.31 (76%) |
| Ohio | $52.14 | $14.42 | Gas | $37.72 (72%) |
| Illinois | $52.34 | $11.58 | Gas | $40.76 (78%) |
| Wisconsin | $53.90 | $11.47 | Gas | $42.42 (79%) |
| Maryland | $61.60 | $17.79 | Gas | $43.81 (71%) |
| Pennsylvania | $59.67 | $15.68 | Gas | $43.98 (74%) |
| Michigan | $58.94 | $11.05 | Gas | $47.88 (81%) |
| Vermont | $69.78 | $18.53 | Gas | $51.25 (73%) |
| New Jersey | $67.41 | $14.95 | Gas | $52.46 (78%) |
| New Hampshire | $78.48 | $20.00 | Gas | $58.48 (75%) |
| Alaska | $76.52 | $13.37 | Gas | $63.15 (83%) |
| Hawaii | $120.45 | $56.95 | Gas | $63.50 (53%) |
| New York | $81.94 | $18.42 | Gas | $63.52 (78%) |
| Massachusetts | $90.50 | $25.37 | Gas | $65.13 (72%) |
| Connecticut | $82.82 | $17.68 | Gas | $65.14 (79%) |
| Rhode Island | $89.21 | $22.53 | Gas | $66.68 (75%) |
| Maine | $87.36 | $19.89 | Gas | $67.47 (77%) |
| California | $96.27 | $22.63 | Gas | $73.64 (76%) |
Reading the electric resistance-vs-natural gas table honestly
Three things this column cannot see for electric resistance against natural gas. The fixed monthly customer charge does not change the $53.43-vs-$14.32 per-unit answer, but it disappears entirely if you drop one of these fuels. Equipment is outside it: nothing here prices a new electric resistance or natural gas furnace, and there is no federal credit for either in 2026. And volatility: natural gas is priced by a dealer rather than a tariff and moved -5% in EIA’s outlook, so the state pages carry each season’s low and high.
Weighing the whole season rather than the unit price? The heat pump vs furnace calculator starts from your annual heating spend, and the winter heating hub puts all five options on one national table.
Frequently asked questions
Is electric heat cheaper than gas?
Yes — at EIA’s national outlook gas costs $14.32 per MMBtu delivered against $53.43 for electric; last winter electric resistance was cheaper in 0 of the 50 states with published prices, so your own two prices decide it.
Is electric resistance cheaper than natural gas for heating?
At EIA’s national outlook prices for this winter, natural gas is cheaper: $14.32 against $53.43 per million Btu delivered. Last winter’s state averages split 0 states for electric resistance and 50 for natural gas, so the honest answer depends on the two prices on your own bills, which the calculator takes directly. The comparison is per unit of delivered heat and ignores the fixed monthly customer charge and equipment cost.
What efficiencies does this comparison assume?
Electric resistance at the state’s winter-average electricity price (COP 1.00); natural gas at the state’s October 2025–March 2026 residential average (EIA Natural Gas Monthly, 10.38 therms per Mcf) through a 95% AFUE furnace. For electric resistance against natural gas every efficiency is editable, and an 80% atmospheric furnace against a 97% condensing one moves this pair’s answer more than a year’s price change.
Why do the state figures use last winter rather than a forecast?
Because electric resistance and natural gas state prices are published by EIA only after the fact (SHOPP runs October to March; the Natural Gas Monthly lags two months) and no agency forecasts them by state. The September 2026 STEO moves the national electric resistance price by +3% and natural gas by -10%; the calculator’s ’this winter’ preset applies those two changes.
Does a tax credit change the electric resistance vs natural gas answer?
Not in 2026. The §25C credit for heat pumps, furnaces and boilers ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, so nothing installed for this winter qualifies federally. State and utility rebates continue and are listed on DSIRE. This page is a running-cost comparison, not tax advice.
How we calculated this
Worked for electric resistance vs natural gas at EIA’s outlook: resistance 293.07 × 0.1823 $/kWh ÷ 1.00 = $53.43/MMBtu; gas 10 × $1.36/therm ÷ 0.95 = $14.32/MMBtu. State rows use each state’s October–March EIA average through the same conversions.Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.
Where to go next
- Winter heating cost hub — Where electric resistance ($53.43) and natural gas ($14.32) sit among all five options on the national table.
- Propane vs Oil Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Propane vs Electric Heat Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Oil vs Heat Pump Cost — The same state table and break-even for a different pair.
- Heat pump vs furnace cost calculator — Whole-season dollars from your own annual heating spend rather than per-MMBtu.
- Heat pump crossover temperature — Named NEEP units: the exact outdoor temperature where the furnace takes over.
- Dual-fuel switchover calculator — Set the changeover point if you keep the old furnace as backup.