Heat Pump vs. Gas Furnace: What Each Costs to Run in 2026

By SolarCostData Data Desk · Reviewed September 2026 · Corrections log

“Is a heat pump cheaper than gas?” has no honest one-word answer, because it depends on two prices that vary several-fold across the country. What it does have is an exact formula — the same one behind our dual-fuel switchover calculator — and once you see it, every headline claim on either side becomes checkable.

The formula that settles it

Fuels are sold in incompatible units — kilowatt-hours, therms — so the only fair comparison is the cost to put the same amount of heat into your house. Per million Btu (MMBtu) of delivered heat:

• Heat pump: 293.07 × electricity price ($/kWh) ÷ COP (what a COP is , in one line: units of heat moved per unit of electricity)
• Gas furnace: 10 × gas price ($/therm) ÷ AFUE

Set them equal and you get the break-even efficiency — the COP a heat pump must beat for gas to lose:

COP_threshold = 29.307 × electricity price ($/kWh) × AFUE ÷ gas price ($/therm)

Everything about this comparison lives in that one line. Cheap electricity or expensive gas lowers the bar; cheap gas or expensive electricity raises it. And because a heat pump’s COP falls as the outdoor temperature drops, the same house can flip from heat-pump-cheaper to furnace-cheaper over a single cold week — which is exactly what a dual-fuel thermostat exploits. The calculator solves this against real cold-climate performance curves from the NEEP database; this guide works the national-average case by hand.

The 2026 worked example

Take the two national averages. Electricity: 17¢/kWh, the 2026 U.S. average residential rate (EIA) used across our cost-to-run pages . Gas: EIA’s U.S. residential natural gas price for January 2026 — the month that matters for heating — was $13.96 per thousand cubic feet. At EIA’s standard heat content of 1,036 Btu per cubic foot , that’s about $1.35 per therm.

Against a modern 95%-AFUE condensing furnace:

COP_threshold = 29.307 × 0.17 × 0.95 ÷ 1.35 ≈ 3.5

The heat pump has to average a COP above 3.5 to be the cheaper heat source at those prices. Against an older 80% furnace the bar drops to about 3.0; in a 12¢/kWh state it drops to roughly 2.5 even against the condensing furnace. Here’s the same math as dollars per MMBtu of delivered heat, at 17¢/kWh and $1.35/therm:

Read it top to bottom and the 2026 story is right there: at national-average prices, cheap natural gas through a condensing furnace is about the hardest opponent a heat pump faces — they’re nearly tied in mild weather, and gas pulls ahead as the temperature falls. Every other fuel loses to the heat pump long before that. Prices are the whole game, though: gas above $2/therm or electricity near 12¢ flips most of the table.

What that means as a monthly cost

The per-MMBtu figures convert directly to the “heat pump vs. gas furnace monthly cost” number people actually budget with. For every 6 MMBtu of heat your house needs in a winter month — scale up or down for your own home and climate — the table reads: about $85/month through the 95% furnace, $85 from a heat pump averaging COP 3.5, $100 at COP 3.0, and $157 at the 1.9 cold-snap COP; electric resistance would be $299. The monthly gap between a good heat pump and a condensing furnace at national-average prices is small in either direction — which is why the deciding inputs are your two local prices, not the appliance. Feed last winter’s actual bill into the heat pump vs. furnace calculator linked below to see your own monthly delta. (When comparing units on a spec sheet, the seasonal ratings — HSPF2 for heating, SEER2 for cooling — are the averaged cousins of the COP figures used here.)

What cold weather actually does

The COP figures above aren’t hypothetical. In the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge, 22 prototype units from major manufacturers were installed in real, mostly occupied homes and monitored from winter 2022 through early fall 2024. The published field validation (PNNL-37127 ) found median measured COPs of 1.6 to 2.7 below 30°F, and a median of 1.9 in the 0–5°F bin — excluding defrost and auxiliary-heat periods. That is nearly identical to the NEEP-derived curves in our dual-fuel tool, where units rated around COP 3.2 at 47°F deliver about 1.9 at 5°F.

Two spec numbers help you shop for the good end of that range. The ENERGY STAR Cold Climate designation requires a COP of at least 1.75 at 5°F and heating capacity at 5°F of at least 70% of the 47°F rating — so a certified cold-climate unit keeps most of its output when you need it most, instead of quietly handing the load to resistance backup. The DOE Challenge prototypes were held to a stricter bar still (COP 2.1–2.4 at 5°F with 100% capacity retention), and several are reaching the market as commercial products.

The practical takeaway: a COP of 1.9 at 5°F is good — and it still prices out at $26.22/MMBtu at 17¢ electricity, well above gas. That’s not an argument against heat pumps; it’s the argument for dual fuel, where the furnace takes exactly those hours and the heat pump takes the far more numerous milder ones.

Where the heat pump wins without a fight

Everything above is the hard case. The easy cases are lopsided:

• Electric resistance. An electric furnace or baseboard delivers heat at COP 1.0 — $49.82/MMBtu at 17¢/kWh. A heat pump running the same electricity through a COP of 2.5–3 cuts that cost by more than half at any rate, in any state.
• Propane and heating oil. Delivered fuels are usually the most expensive heat in the house per MMBtu ; a heat pump beats them at almost any electricity price, which is why replacements there pay off fastest.
• Cooling included. The heat pump is also your air conditioner — a furnace comparison never captures that side of the ledger.

The 2026 money reality

One thing has changed since last winter’s versions of this comparison: the federal §25C credit — up to $2,000 toward a qualifying heat pump — ended for property placed in service after December 31, 2025. A 2026 installation gets $0 federal. That doesn’t change the operating-cost math on this page at all, but it lengthens the payback on replacing a working furnace, and it makes state and utility rebates (check DSIRE ) the only purchase-side help left. One filing-season note: if your heat pump was placed in service in 2025, this is the season to claim that last §25C credit — it goes on Form 5695 Part II, on the same return covered in how to claim the 2025 credits . If your gas furnace works and your gas is cheap, the numbers above may tell you to keep it running as the cold-weather half of a dual-fuel setup rather than rip it out.

Run your own two prices through the dual-fuel switchover calculator to find the exact temperature where the winner changes — or start from your annual heating bill in the heat pump vs. furnace cost calculator .

Sources

• Gas price — EIA, U.S. Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers : $13.96/Mcf, January 2026. Conversion at 1,036 Btu/cf (EIA) ≈ $1.35/therm.
• Electricity rate — 17¢/kWh, 2026 U.S. average residential rate (EIA), as used across our cost-to-run model.
• Cold-climate field performance — Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, PNNL-37127: Performance Results from DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge Field Validation (January 2025).
• Cold Climate specification — ENERGY STAR, Air-Source Heat Pump Key Product Criteria : COP ≥ 1.75 at 5°F, capacity at 5°F ≥ 70% of 47°F.
• COP curves — NEEP cold-climate ASHP database, 1,418 deduplicated units, as processed for our dual-fuel switchover calculator .
• Federal credit status — §25C ended for property placed in service after Dec 31, 2025; Public Law 119-21 (2025).

Figures on this page are estimates at national-average prices, not quotes — your utility’s rates can sit far from both averages, and that alone can flip the verdict. Verify current rebates on DSIRE and with your utility. Nothing here is tax, legal or financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) electricity rates · DSIRE incentive records · public IRS/OBBBA guidance. Figures are modeled estimates, not quotes or tax advice. See our methodology.

Where to go next

• Dual-fuel switchover calculator — This guide’s formula solved interactively against real NEEP capacity-COP curves — find your own balance point.
• Heat pump vs. furnace calculator — Your annual heating spend converted to delivered heat and re-priced with a heat pump at your rate.
• Cost to run a heat pump — The heat pump’s monthly cost at typical wattage and hours — the electric side of this comparison in dollars.
• Cost to run an electric furnace — What resistance heat costs — the fate a dual-fuel setup is built to avoid.